Big guys are playing a very dangerous game. On 15-min volume chart you can see their bearish attack is slowly exhausting.
We need to make sure it won't have a next leg down (double mirror charasteristics ).
Marketvolume chart:
SP500, 15 min:
SB histo: 22,7
SBV Osc: 14,4
My concern is SP500 2-day chart sell volume is still on 8 rose from 0 today.
Russell does not serve signals to any stock exchange today, so we need to make decision based on a less-volume SP500 index. And we will.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Liquidation: 1 unit of SPX @1035
Reason: Broken market internals, selling volume rose from 0 to -8 and does not change.
Our purpose is to be as safe as possible.
30 mins before EOD I'll come back and will let you know whether I liquidate our 2nd SPX unit.
We will still make nice profit!
Our purpose is to be as safe as possible.
30 mins before EOD I'll come back and will let you know whether I liquidate our 2nd SPX unit.
We will still make nice profit!
Monsters shake the market
As new quarter opens big guys play their game: push prices down and buy cheap, while others in panic.
Daily, 2-day remains intact bull, but we can see a huge bearish attack started from last friday.
As momentum is weak, this is a dangerous play, can drag all the market down.
Hopefully our invisible protector will keep market internals healthy.
As per moment monsters perform gap testing (sep-23 - sep-24), and, while others make panic sell, freak-out and liquidate monsters buy , buy and buy CHEAP.
We reached our soft liquidation levels, but I keep both of our units as longer-term market internals remained bullish.
I know these are hard moments for you. I promise I'll come back 30 mins before EOD and let you know whether I liquidate or not.
Daily, 2-day remains intact bull, but we can see a huge bearish attack started from last friday.
As momentum is weak, this is a dangerous play, can drag all the market down.
Hopefully our invisible protector will keep market internals healthy.
As per moment monsters perform gap testing (sep-23 - sep-24), and, while others make panic sell, freak-out and liquidate monsters buy , buy and buy CHEAP.
We reached our soft liquidation levels, but I keep both of our units as longer-term market internals remained bullish.
I know these are hard moments for you. I promise I'll come back 30 mins before EOD and let you know whether I liquidate or not.
Week-End Summary
Dear my Readers,
This post wil be a short one.
Please read curent situation and forecast in this post:
http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/10/answers-for-james.html
The only thing I did not put is RUA 2-day and gold (HUI XAU).
RUA 2-days is still strongly bullish:
GOLD 3-Days:
Still bullish with decreasing momentum. MVO suggests a strong rally in process.
Our limits, exit points etc remain the same as last week:
Good luck!
This post wil be a short one.
Please read curent situation and forecast in this post:
http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/10/answers-for-james.html
The only thing I did not put is RUA 2-day and gold (HUI XAU).
RUA 2-days is still strongly bullish:
GOLD 3-Days:
Still bullish with decreasing momentum. MVO suggests a strong rally in process.
Our limits, exit points etc remain the same as last week:
Good luck!
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Answer to Mary: Exits, targets, etc.
Mary, as this blog is an educational blog for beginners, I use simple ichimoku cloud analysis and demonstrate there a very easy technique to determine liquidation points.
I really like ichimoku. It's a nice combination of moving averages, trend calculation and visualization.
Details can be found here:
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud
We have 2 units of SPX.
1 unit is a core unit. I only exit if 1-day and 2- day chart gives clear signal of liquidation on RUA.
Second unit is liquidated based on 60-min charts or other market conditions.
In order to protect us against any major surprise (unexpected natural phenomenon, vis major etc.) every week-end I show an ichimoku chart with a:
-cloud support (soft liquidation - if volume momentum remains, we don't sell, so we just alert ourselves something is going on an unexpected way)
-major supports inherited from former cloud cycle or logical TA. I pinpoint a classic TA soft liquidation if an important support breaks
-hard liquidation: mechanic and immediate liquidation
If we purely take volume based TA, we don't need to put targets and exit points. Simply we check market health as information streams. This is an unusual approach, where we don't want to tell the market when it's weak, we trust in our indicators listen, and let market to tell us when internals are weak.
I really like ichimoku. It's a nice combination of moving averages, trend calculation and visualization.
Details can be found here:
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud
We have 2 units of SPX.
1 unit is a core unit. I only exit if 1-day and 2- day chart gives clear signal of liquidation on RUA.
Second unit is liquidated based on 60-min charts or other market conditions.
In order to protect us against any major surprise (unexpected natural phenomenon, vis major etc.) every week-end I show an ichimoku chart with a:
-cloud support (soft liquidation - if volume momentum remains, we don't sell, so we just alert ourselves something is going on an unexpected way)
-major supports inherited from former cloud cycle or logical TA. I pinpoint a classic TA soft liquidation if an important support breaks
-hard liquidation: mechanic and immediate liquidation
If we purely take volume based TA, we don't need to put targets and exit points. Simply we check market health as information streams. This is an unusual approach, where we don't want to tell the market when it's weak, we trust in our indicators listen, and let market to tell us when internals are weak.
Answers for James
1. I use Stockcharts.com and they do not show intraday volume for RUA or SPX. So I use corresponding ETF for volume study of my own - IWV and SPY. Am I making mistake by doing this?
James, if you use MV charts, you don't need to use the stockcharts one. If you dont want to use MV volume data then you make a correct and logical study. However, I recommend to use MV volume data and indicators. IF you use MV data and indicators, then NEVER follow the lover volume derivative instruments. ETFs are driven by indexes. I make daytrade on e-minis and use SPX for those. E-minis have influence on SPX if volume constellation on SPX is ready to absorb that.
2. BUT if I look at daily chart, I get more worrisome signs. Using same (8,16) and (6.2) setting, the 3 month chart shows blue cycle being close to over!
Larger period needs shorter indicator setups. Setups also change by index a little.
Please find correct setup for histo and oscillator for 60-min and 1-day RUA below:
RUA 1-day:
RUA 60-min:
There is no 3-months chart, I suppose you are talking about the histogram and oscillator of RUA on 1-day chart. First of all, please change the setup of your indicators according to mine.
You are right, 1-day RUA histogram shows negative number again, but oscillator is a little above of the critical level of 33%.
I can see more indicators than silver subscribers and they tell me situation is close to critical, but volume momentum is RISING, also sentiment is advancing and what is the most important selling volume is still at zero level.
Also your drill down technique needs change. First is checking 2-days chart, that is the major trend, then 1 day, then 60 mins.
Please find RUA 1-day with all indicators:
First we need to check whether selling volume is zero. If not, then it requires immediate action. This need to be checked after the second hour of the day and later every second hour. Decision should be made in last hours only based on 1day chart. If selling volume is still not zero then it's a clear signal for liquidation. Sentiment is rising, and it suggests further bull impulse.Then sentiment needs to be checked. Reading of this indicator is above 46 is o.k. Now it's rising. Now we check oscillator and the last we check is histogram.
After 1-day let's see 60 min:
As you can see, there is a bearish attack started at 10:30 a.m. Sep 30. MVO suggested a major price fall, but an invisible hand started a contra-attack next morning and did not let prices to fall sharp. This can be read fro the selling & buying volume indicator. The power of the bull/bear cycle can be measured by reading histo. As you can see the bear attack has been eliminated for a.m. 11:30 1-oct. For all the fight SBV oscillator gives neutral signals, does no help too much. Finally AD sentiment became bullish, slowly giving signal above 50. We can count with a nice bull monday. Also please observe the rising bullish momentum. While momentum is bullish (green) we can order much larger chance for bull price change than to bearish change.
I feel market makers pushed a huge buy volume in the last 2 trading days resulted minimal price rise, so now tension is big and price manifestation is imminent.
Your first volume TA was pretty good I feel!
Jag: 3. What parameters do you use for the smaller timeframes and on the daily?
Smaller timeframes need longer periods.
I give RUA:
30 min histo: 20,40
30 min oscillator:16,4
15 min histo: 22,7
15 min oscillator: 22,2
1 min histo: 13,41
1 min oscillator: 70,3
Please be careful with short-period decisions. Daytrading needs excellent understanding of related risks and needs experience.
James, if you use MV charts, you don't need to use the stockcharts one. If you dont want to use MV volume data then you make a correct and logical study. However, I recommend to use MV volume data and indicators. IF you use MV data and indicators, then NEVER follow the lover volume derivative instruments. ETFs are driven by indexes. I make daytrade on e-minis and use SPX for those. E-minis have influence on SPX if volume constellation on SPX is ready to absorb that.
2. BUT if I look at daily chart, I get more worrisome signs. Using same (8,16) and (6.2) setting, the 3 month chart shows blue cycle being close to over!
Larger period needs shorter indicator setups. Setups also change by index a little.
Please find correct setup for histo and oscillator for 60-min and 1-day RUA below:
RUA 1-day:
RUA 60-min:
There is no 3-months chart, I suppose you are talking about the histogram and oscillator of RUA on 1-day chart. First of all, please change the setup of your indicators according to mine.
You are right, 1-day RUA histogram shows negative number again, but oscillator is a little above of the critical level of 33%.
I can see more indicators than silver subscribers and they tell me situation is close to critical, but volume momentum is RISING, also sentiment is advancing and what is the most important selling volume is still at zero level.
Also your drill down technique needs change. First is checking 2-days chart, that is the major trend, then 1 day, then 60 mins.
Please find RUA 1-day with all indicators:
First we need to check whether selling volume is zero. If not, then it requires immediate action. This need to be checked after the second hour of the day and later every second hour. Decision should be made in last hours only based on 1day chart. If selling volume is still not zero then it's a clear signal for liquidation. Sentiment is rising, and it suggests further bull impulse.Then sentiment needs to be checked. Reading of this indicator is above 46 is o.k. Now it's rising. Now we check oscillator and the last we check is histogram.
After 1-day let's see 60 min:
As you can see, there is a bearish attack started at 10:30 a.m. Sep 30. MVO suggested a major price fall, but an invisible hand started a contra-attack next morning and did not let prices to fall sharp. This can be read fro the selling & buying volume indicator. The power of the bull/bear cycle can be measured by reading histo. As you can see the bear attack has been eliminated for a.m. 11:30 1-oct. For all the fight SBV oscillator gives neutral signals, does no help too much. Finally AD sentiment became bullish, slowly giving signal above 50. We can count with a nice bull monday. Also please observe the rising bullish momentum. While momentum is bullish (green) we can order much larger chance for bull price change than to bearish change.
I feel market makers pushed a huge buy volume in the last 2 trading days resulted minimal price rise, so now tension is big and price manifestation is imminent.
Your first volume TA was pretty good I feel!
Jag: 3. What parameters do you use for the smaller timeframes and on the daily?
Smaller timeframes need longer periods.
I give RUA:
30 min histo: 20,40
30 min oscillator:16,4
15 min histo: 22,7
15 min oscillator: 22,2
1 min histo: 13,41
1 min oscillator: 70,3
Please be careful with short-period decisions. Daytrading needs excellent understanding of related risks and needs experience.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Elimination of yesterday's bearish attack
Dear my Readers,
I am full with tasks. Please open your marketvolume chart 60-min, RUA. You can see yesterday's 1,2bn last hour bear attack. Market is in the process to erodate that negative volume.
If you are interested: it will be eliminated soon (30-50 min).
Parameters:
SBV histo:8,16
SBV osc: 6,2
Will come back on sunday and make a week-end summary, also will answer your questions.
Good luck! And thank you for visiting my site. I hope you will make nice money as me.
I am full with tasks. Please open your marketvolume chart 60-min, RUA. You can see yesterday's 1,2bn last hour bear attack. Market is in the process to erodate that negative volume.
If you are interested: it will be eliminated soon (30-50 min).
Parameters:
SBV histo:8,16
SBV osc: 6,2
Will come back on sunday and make a week-end summary, also will answer your questions.
Good luck! And thank you for visiting my site. I hope you will make nice money as me.
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