Unexpected improvement

Dear my Readers,

If you follow 1-day RUA, USD and gold charts you see something strange is happening.
First of all let's compare our ichioku vs. reality.

So far the plan seems valid, 3-5 points of difference is acceptable.

Almost all short-term classic TA indicators show decline in short-term 
But how it will continue?
I feel we are before a big surprise. A bull surprise.

Let me show why do I think that.
In a normal correction USD is rising as cash is preferred and streaming out of stocks.
Now USD started a new bear cycle on daily chart:

USD started a bear cycle instead of rising!
Ben is so successful in manipulation he could convince participants not to make any major correction, but invest instead? Seems something happens like that.


Please dont forget these days are extremely pathetic in volumes and it's easy to manipulate the market, so we need to wait till large volumes come back and work.
But we have a warning sign.

Let's see the market:

NYSE is sometimes give a direction, and has a surprising signal. Heck, it seems recovering.

 





All indicators weak, however oscillator starts to give a recovery signal.
I suggest to wait few days for larger volumes, but this signal is very important.


Let's see gold:

Well, it started to make a bull cycle. We need to monitor it, volumes are pathetic, and PM is very narrow, so I am not buying it yet, only notice the improvement.
With correct fakeout analysis we can catch whether it's in a new bull cycle. However, it exactly does the inverse mirror of dollar move, so while dollar falls we can make sure it's rising. I am pretty disturbed about the gap opening, that might will close.

And finally sox -  a really big surprise:

Bearish volume declining! With a fakeout analysis we can check if it's a bull before a second selling cascade, so let's wait few days again.

If dollar continues it's bear cycle, we need to count with a small correction and then an amazing bull rally.
I might start buy some silver and gold, also one unit of SPX.

But not now. Next year.

Happy New Year!!!

Week-End post

First of all, Merry Christmas for my Christian readers!

I'll update you quickly on the stock-market and PM sector, then, as I promised in recently, I show a simple guide how to build support from ichimoku.


So what happened in the last few days?

Market started cleaning process 5 times, but Ben immediately dumped large amounts of dollar helped bulls to weaken bearish cycle. Please check the 60-mins RUA and USD charta below.

Chart above shows bearish cycles on 60min. 1 was pretty weak, 2 gave MVO signal as well, 3 was weak again, 4 was negated by MVO 5. Slightly started EOD last trading day.


Let's see the USD dumps:

You can see, every time the bull started to hesitate, huge amount of USD was dumped to the market in order to neutralize the bear cycle. I must say, it was pretty successful so far. Slowly USD is getting stronger and market is stagnating. PM sector reacted accordingly: started a healthy correction and it is running it's cleaning process nicely.

RUA 1-day:

Both histos are in negative territory, also oscillator is declining, now it's 1% more than critical level.
These are warning signals, however momentum is still very strong, sentiment gained in the last days.

In summary: situation is a little worse than neutral, negative bull signals give caution, some profit taking is strongly advised..
Last bearish cycle started pretty strong, so account has to be taken for this symptom.

How to build an ichimoku TA?

There is no schoolbook to build an ichimoku TA. I'll show a simple and easy way I usually show my clients to give understanding.


Let's see 1-day SPX:

Step 1: GAP analysis: Make a detailed review and check for uncovered gaps. Give a signal of them.
I signaled GAP found with number 1.

Step 2: Build up dynamic cloud support. This is the medium line of the cloud. If this line is touched, trend change is very possible. Also breaking into or through clouds is a possible trend-changing signal.

Step 3: Find cloud supports and resistances. Clouds are made by short and long averages.
Horizontal cloud edges (senkou spans (A or B)) or  signal support/resistances. Longer the line, signal is stronger, so probablity of it's activation is higher.
Mark supports and resistances. I marked them as possible supports. 3 and 4 is an inherited support from last cycle, 5, 6, 7 and 8 from this, current cycle.
As you see, 1-8 and 3-7 in the same levels, so mark them as a possible target of correction.
2,6 and 4 is just support to remember.



5. 1070 is our hard liquidation zone. One level above, 1110 is our soft liquidation zone. Here we cut our bull stakes to minimum, and watch whether we meet to the hard liquidation level.


Now we are done on 1-day. Between current level and cloud support (2.) we still need to make a plan.

60 min ichimoku:

Step 1: GAP analyisis. Two GAPS found 1.a and 1.b. 60-mins gaps have no that strong magnet power than 1-day gaps, anyway, good to make a mark.

Step 2: Cloud support: 2,3,4. Warning signal: price candle crossed cloud support 2.

Step 3: Find inherited or current cycle supports: Inherited supports are 6, 7 and 8, current levels are 10 11 and 12.

Step 4: Try to sketch a scenario. Based on several factors we suppose that we are in a topping process. topping process in general makes an initial drop and test Tenkan-sen (done), then continues and tests Kijun-sen (red line), then test back it's own top but fails. This is the final step of the topping process, and for this time large volume puts are in play drag market down with huge efficiency.
Senoku span gives some support, but then prices fall. As we have a gap there, for sure, level 12 is a primary target down.
Then second GAP (1a) magnets prices down, fear is the strongest at this fall. As 6,7, and 1.a fall into same territory, prices might hesitate this level, but might fail. At failure, next level is 10. If that fails, next is 9.

Please note it's not a forecast, it's only a possible scenario. Bear correction might happen much faster, some levels simply skipped, and level of correction might be much stronger.

Chance is big for a correction and I count with 7-10% correction at least. However, I warn you again: please dont try to short this market. Ben is here and can change the process at any time. We could see his manipulation in the past, and he has lots of money left. However his only tool is inflation for now and media manipulation. Economy has no real results, but Ben has printing machines. And he is very effective using that.
He manipulates USD heavily. And in trouble he will be more agressive. USD rises in corrections and it will be strong again, Ben will have ammunition again. He will dump, dump and dump dollar to defend economy against deflation. That dump will push PM sector to dream levels. So, instead of concentrating to this 7-10% fall in the next 1 month try to keep your eyes on the main picture: an upcoming bull rally on market and amazing growth (25-40%)of PM sector. I'll try to ride the bull and capture that as quick as possible. Till then I keep our core positions and wait.

Again, Steffan makes excellent daily market posts. I will make 2-3 weekly posts. I welcome any new trainee who opens a VTA blog. I'll link them and help them in their start. My goal for next year is to open a team-blog and continue market analysis together.

Good luck!

For my readers

I remain silent, we have nothing to do, only sit back and enjoy this show.
If you are interested what's happening, follow RUA 60, 30 min volume chart and USD 60 min volume chart.

This week the Monday morning bear cycle  failed as immediately USD was shorted-large amounts of liquidity absorbed the attempt. Today we had an end of the next 60-min bull cycle. So tomorrow bears have chance again.

However after all manipulation, dollar is strengthening back, and Ben has dry powder again. Market is driven by liquidity, nothing else.

If you take a look to 1-day RUA chart, buy volume fell today under critical level, however sell volume is still steady zero. It means smarts slowly take profits and stay mostly in cash. We do the same in this blog. Wait.
Again, please dont try to short this market.

Also I recommend to follow USD futures/1 hour and silver/gold/copper/ES futures. You can see, PM sector makes healthier cleaning process than market.
At this level of VIX I still say, it's better to stay away. VIX might go lower, Ben has endless ammunition. But one thing is sure: longer this daily bull cycle extends bigger it will correct.

Again, Steffan makes very good daily updates on his blog, please follow him. I made my part in the last half year.

Good luck!


Fyi: today I've put some small close EOD short bet in in my portfolio and reduced my bulls to minimum. Check 60 mins RUA why.

Week-End Summary

It seems market is in a topping process.
For this time, market gave us so many signals we just had to read them and act accordingly.
Next week probability is high for manifestation.
I protect everyone to go to the bearish side. Be careful with that. Bear bet needs extreme good understanding of market, also needs proper timing. On top of that FED is constantly manipulating the market, so surprise upside is possible at any time. However I warn you: don't jump in too early with bull. Be patient. I expect a minimum 2 selling cascade lasts 7-12 trading days at least.

So we have time.

2-Days RUA:

2 days RUA chart looks rock solid bull. Noting to worry for long term investors yet.


1-day RUA:

Questions start on 1 day RUA chart. Histo bear cross is imminent, oscillator demonstrates local bull exhaustion. MVO shows exhausting local bull surge, however momentum is still healthy.
What gives reason for some worry is the diverging sentiment indicator. That shows decline while prices go up.
This discrepancy needs to be noted I feel and signals some trend change.


60-mins RUA chart:

This is a non-public setup of 60-mins RUA volume change. You can clearly see and follow the current bear exhaustion. Please also note the huge selling volume bars explain what happens behind the curtains: smarts sell, and a very well coordinated organization buys and saves market. Question is for how long FED plays this game. Ben, please let market down, you stretched this market to extreme bull. Longer you stretched bigger it corrects.

 Dollar 1-day:

Whatever Ben does, dollar started it's bull turn now. Smarts buy. Please observe flat selling volume and large buying spikes. Dollar rally is imminent. It will drag market down, also will hurt precious metals.

Dollar is heavily manipulated, so I still expect some spike down, but once things start to get their original directions.

GOLD 1-day

Gold bear is getting be stronger. It's heavily manipulated, and smarts need to manipulate prices up in a downturn as well, while they don't take profits from their current level of stakes, and buy cheap puts.


Gold 2-days:

More and more proof of bearish turn.


SOX 2-days:

As you know I am a big SOX and copper - fun.  Sox usually predicts general market direction.

SOX 2-days is still healthy, but momentum VRSIhas a serious decline. Warning signal.


SOX 1-day:


SOX 1-day has a clear bearish indication.

Histo made a bearish cross, oscillator is under critical level, SBV made a clear cross, selling volume elevated.
Bearish manifestation in progress.

SPX 1-day :

Histo bearish cross is imminent,  MVO had a bearish indication days ago, momentum is very close to critical level.

60-mins SPX

Current bearis cycle finished, huge selling volume spike can be observed as well. A starting MVO bearish signal makes it clear: second bearish attack started. The question is now: will FED still manipulate, or realize that smarts now much stronger?


We are out for weeks now with a minimum core position we will not give up till hard liquidation levels. In my next post I'll show you how to buils SIL and $HUI levels using ichimoku.


Good luck!

Where are we now?

These days are very busy to me, therefore no charts today, sorry.
However I felt to write a quick post to my readers just to clarify where are we now.
As I told you we had an end of 60 mins bull cycle on tuesday. Next day was red.
If you followed the 60-mins RUA chart you could see bear exhaustion.

What happened? Very simple. Best buyer is a short seller at cover. We could clearly see a heavy manipulation on USD again, Ben started its printing presses as a solution for everything.

Market responded accordingly: assets turned back to positive and gold started to stabilize.
As I follow and trade futures mainly, I can report dollar started a decline and gold started to stabilize, later rise, of course after-market, so masses will be left out from this business again. (This forecast valid max 6-8 hours, then needs review again, now it's 01:44 ET)

So a new manipulation again. I am not buying it now here in this blog (my trades are totally different, in different time frame, also I ride the bear side).
It worked for half year, we made huge profit, and it's all.
In my opinion smarts will not jump in to the market at VIX 17. Savvy traders start to build up cheap short positions and wait. Look, FED does not let market down. However, bear side is more efficient now than bull, it was tested on Wednesday. It just a matter of time when algos turn their directions. If FED stays alone, and smarts dont buy a potential of a bull rally, simply FED needs to let market down, and let smarts to buy cheap.
It's all. Till FED does not realize it's more effective to go together with smart money, the only solution is for smarts to wait. Let giants play the game now.

Vali, Staffan, please find my SPX 500 setup :

histo: 6,22
Osc: 6,1
SBV : 6,33
MVO: 6,18,2
Momentum AD osc: 10,20
AD sentiment: 7

I still say, the most reliable is RUA. While selling volume on SBV is flat zero, on 1-day it's pretty safe. You will not catch the top, so some loss on you bull stakes imaginable, but you will easily identify a possible serious downturn.

Vali, the ansewer for your question:
Steffan posed similar question recently, my was:

'How to find parameters is the key in MV I feel. After the parameters found using them is an another story.
Parameters depend on the time frame, underlying instrument, volume, volatility and general market conditions.
Yes, you can use a totally manual approach, when you try that and try, and backtest, and your volume charts start to predict the price change.
Personally I use a different method: AI. That makes me the majority of the job, then I fine tune the initial suggestion of my system.
As you can see, most of my parameters divert from the MV recommendations. However they work. 1 day needs to be reviewed on monthly basis, 2 day every third months, 60-day every second weeks. Thes are not big changes, sometimes a proper fakeout analysis is totally enough instead of changing parameters.

So I encourage you to work out your own ways. The setup I gave for RUA is good below VIX 26-28.'

Good luck!

End of bull cycle

Today we had a perfect indication of finishing the recent bull-cycle on 60 mins chart.


1-Day RUA 

This chart seems fine for the first sight, the only problem is an anomaly between bullish price vs. decline on volume sentiment.
Also MVO surge is exhausting giving bears a nice chance for a correction.
Histo also warns for bearish exhaustion.

60 mins RUA:

Double top on 60 mins rua signals an issue with the current resistance.
Moving average also signals exhaustion.
What we need to watch is the almost flat selling volume.

1-day SPX:

A very strong MVO bearish signal can be observed on 1-day SPX.
If we were not at QE2 I'd say there is a possible trend change.
This level of MVO did not occur since may.

USD 1 day:

USD has been forced to remain bearish, several traces to keep it artificially low can easily be observed.
This level of currency manipulation will lead to an economical disaster.

Financials:

There is no healthy economy without financials.
Selling volume remained elevated. In spite of the huge spending for economy in 2010 there is only 0.5% improvement in bank sector. Great job! I can only congratulate.How much Ben spent for this? 1 trillion? 2 trillions? 3? Does not matter anymore.

I am not buying it

Dear my Readers,

Steffan makes excellent Volume based TAs on his blog on daily basis, and trades according nicely.
Please follow his blog for daily updates and summaries.

http://spxvolumeanalysis.wordpress.com/

However, if we step behind and look into a larger picture about USD, PM, SPXA50, VIX and NYMO, then we can see that market internals are still weak and not improving with the same momentum as prices.

Therefore I am not buying anything, I have a core position and I dont care, I might miss a nice rally, but I am rather convinced about an upcoming correction.

Then, when everybody is scared, market will be ready for a fresh big rally. An I will be there.

So, in this blog I'll stay away from the market for a while and watch.
I might make some posts just for analyzing internals or discuss some questions popped up in the last months.

Again, for daily VTA updates please find Steffan's blog. He is really good. Can you see?
If he could, you'll also learn it quick.

Down day

2- days RUA:

After 12 green days'cummulated selling volume is still elevated, and sentiment turned down when everybody cheers.
This is an anomaly we should take into account.

1-day RUA fakeout:


After 5 green days of rise in prices selling volume is still elevated. Not a good sign.

60-min RUA:

It seems we had a double bull finished yesterday with exhaustion led to a very strong price manifestation.
Let's see whether FED lets bears to drag prices down or saves the market.
I feel it will, and the only purpose of it to make an artificial dip, re-test recent lows, clean the market, insert buy volume and go up, up up.

Good luck!

In Top 10 / Top 3 globally

woww...

Had a small time to check my ranking.

WOWWW...

Maybe I should post more ? Hehehee...

Many thanks for reading me and talking about volume-based technical analysis!

Patience

Seems as predicted, PM had a top today  (AYH+ gap-up + possible red reversal candle) usually a signal of the beginning of a correction.
If you are still in, nothing to worry about, close your eyes for a few days.
It will be fine.

Same can be observed on RUA/SPX.

I will wait till tomorrow or day after tomorrow with shopping. Today is the start I feel.

Let's see 2.pm. buy up cycle today.

good luck!

Show will come tomorrow.

On 60-min RUA chart you can see a full elimination of buy volume,and steady zero sell volume.
Perfect setup for bears for tomorrow to drag prices down.

Let's see how it manifests!!

1 day chart seems buying power is strengthening, so in few days I count with a healthy bull-setup.

As it's a bull market, I'll leave my existing stakes in and let their profit to be lost.
They will grow back, and I might not be able to catch the bottom.
You know , it's a bull market.

If you dont see my point, read Old Turkey again :)

http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/09/old-turkey.html

Gooooood luck for tomorrow. I will start to make some nice shopping of SPX I feel.
1-2 units.

Intraday update

Nothing to worry about, smarts press prices as it was predicted.
Everything is under control, slow price-down in small impulses.
Silver/gold opened with a gap up, I feel today is a last day to sell.

Let's see how the things change, whether bulls jump in again at 2.00 p.m.
If not, tomorrow will be an another correction.

good luck!!!

Quick week-end summary

Steffan made a pretty good TA of RUA on his blog, please make a read:

http://spxvolumeanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/12/04/eod-2010-12-03-2/

The only thing what I miss is a  clear bull situation on SBV. Selling volume is still elevated, it means smarts still sell. Market is still not safe. That MVO on the 1d chart is pretty impressive, and at the moment it eliminates, I expect a pullback. Make no mistake, from now I rather suggest to try to pick the bottom of the upcoming small correction and DONT SHORT. This market has an extreme power behind.

Then who buys?

Smalls and the FED.

Smalls are always make a mistake: buy expensive and freak out at cheap. In order to make money we need to buy cheap and sell on strength. So large investors used last days to get rid of their portions.

And FED. QE2 is in full steam and protects market against any major fall. Let me show you something.

In the last few days we could see sell on strength signals.
Smarts were ready for a next selling cascade, and the job report on Friday was a great opportunity to do that.
Chart above shows what happened. As you can see, market started to fall at the moment of announcement, (automatic algos scan news portals and evaluate in seconds). After HFTs joined to the party, selling continued. FED started to debase dollar, you can see, the 500%+ volume change in the most critical moments and made sure stock market will stabilize. As USD fell at full QE2 steam, silver made an extreme rise with huge volume insertion.
For the time other market participants joined to the party the storm was over. Smarts gave up for a the friday and now they might start to think to make money on long side. No one wants to step in front of Ben.
What I feel will happen is a max 1-3% correction in order to make a dip buy and then, a massive bull cycle starts resulting a completely debased USD. Price of this rise will be serious, next correction in few months will be massive and fierce.
Anyway for that moment let's enjoy the bull show and check the moment when market is not safe: that's the moment to pull our stakes back and be in cash.

For the next days we just sit, enjoy the show, and when market is over of the upcoming minor correction, that's the time to start to buy.

A few months ago I posted a chart identified by my AI, as a W-shape recovery pattern.
Let's see how is it progressing.

Silver, gold: I expect a correction in PM sector, maybe drags down prices lower than the recent lows. That will be a clear signal to make a buy without thinking.

If market makes a clear bull setup without any dip (I seriously doubt), then our remaining stakes make money and we did not miss this bull, we just buy our additional stakes again.

Good luck!

Selling HUI, SPX

2 units of HUI @565
1 unit of SPX @1219

justification: Selling volume keeps steady in spite of last two day's bull rally.
It means smarts sell in the background and pass their stakes to smalls.
I am not buying, rather going cash.

RUA 1-day

I expect one more, final re-test towards 1180s. I did not say that will happen, but normally, after days like we had yesterday and today selling volume should drop to zero.

When that is done, and selling volume is steady zero, I will start to buy.

Somne charts EOD.

Nice improvement yesterday

As you seen, market was on verge of a bigger correction.
However, yesterday there was a big buying volume inserted changed the picture on 1-day and 2-day chart.
I will try to do my best to post screens, latest EOD.

Today I feel there will be some cooldown, as yesterday we had a gap up, but now, we can start to think about gradual shopping.

Steffan, I am really happy to see your blog. I will make a link exchange today. Good luck for your blog!

Others: if you open a Volume TA blog, please let me know. Your blogs will be linked to mine for sure.
As you know I plan to stop this blog early next year. Seems I start to reach my purpose: build a small team learns VTA and helps others to make safe trade.

good luck!