Thursday, December 30, 2010

Unexpected improvement

Dear my Readers,

If you follow 1-day RUA, USD and gold charts you see something strange is happening.
First of all let's compare our ichioku vs. reality.

So far the plan seems valid, 3-5 points of difference is acceptable.

Almost all short-term classic TA indicators show decline in short-term 
But how it will continue?
I feel we are before a big surprise. A bull surprise.

Let me show why do I think that.
In a normal correction USD is rising as cash is preferred and streaming out of stocks.
Now USD started a new bear cycle on daily chart:

USD started a bear cycle instead of rising!
Ben is so successful in manipulation he could convince participants not to make any major correction, but invest instead? Seems something happens like that.

Please dont forget these days are extremely pathetic in volumes and it's easy to manipulate the market, so we need to wait till large volumes come back and work.
But we have a warning sign.

Let's see the market:

NYSE is sometimes give a direction, and has a surprising signal. Heck, it seems recovering.


All indicators weak, however oscillator starts to give a recovery signal.
I suggest to wait few days for larger volumes, but this signal is very important.

Let's see gold:

Well, it started to make a bull cycle. We need to monitor it, volumes are pathetic, and PM is very narrow, so I am not buying it yet, only notice the improvement.
With correct fakeout analysis we can catch whether it's in a new bull cycle. However, it exactly does the inverse mirror of dollar move, so while dollar falls we can make sure it's rising. I am pretty disturbed about the gap opening, that might will close.

And finally sox -  a really big surprise:

Bearish volume declining! With a fakeout analysis we can check if it's a bull before a second selling cascade, so let's wait few days again.

If dollar continues it's bear cycle, we need to count with a small correction and then an amazing bull rally.
I might start buy some silver and gold, also one unit of SPX.

But not now. Next year.

Happy New Year!!!

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