Quick update

Take a look into 4-days chart.

I did not buy anything, also will not buy tomorrow.
Patience. We might miss some profit, but our target is to make safe money.

To be honest, after this collapse of buy volume on 4-day, I feel somehow no comfort holding those 4 units of HUI.

I've updated our trades page. Our compound is 134.45% now. Not so bad in a few months I feel.

Good luck!

Gold and Silver

Is performing well.
I am not selling anything, I feel it's all a mere manipulation to freak smalls out.
I might buy some SIL back today.

Month-end summary

It seems market continues it's weak performance. In order to understand the underlying movementes we need to make VTA on different time-frames starting from long-periods to short periods.

Ususally I don't show longer periods than 2 days, but lets check the 4-days RUA analysis.
One bar represents 4 trading days, and it has huge underlying volume (~20Bn) therefore it's reliability is pretty high.

4-days RUA:

4-days RUA should be read with a different eye. As I told the dynamics of this chart differs from the short periods. So a sympthom needs to be taken with caution, once it has an indication that is almost sure, it will happen. However, please don't be scared seeing clear bearish indication on the chart. World will not collapse, market was too hot and now it cools down.
We can count with further 3-5% of fall at least.

2-days RUA:

Every second day this chart produces one bar and additional information. Yesterday it was the first day of the new bar and it had almost same histo bearish level than the former 2 days. Buy volume remains flat zero, selling volume is above the critical level.

2-days RUA Fakeout analysis:

So far pretty good, long and short period oscillator/histo is not in sync, therefore it seems market still has lots of bullish volume accumulation secures market against major correction.

1-day RUA:

We had a very weak bullish cycle manifestation, seems we need to count with one more bearish wave.

60 min RUA:

It seems a short-period bearish cycle just finished on Monday. We can obtain important information from Tuesday's bull cycle. In reflection of the higher time frames I suppose we have a high chance that for a double bear.

USD 1-day:

It seems USD continues it's bullish rally. It defined a bullish recovery, has smart-buy signals as well.
Please observe, in intraday charts USD/SPX has a strong impact on market. Ben has an extremely strong tool to rise market if feels unsafe market condition is not charming enough. As he said his purpose is inflation, and FED just announced QE2 shorting this market carries extreme risk.

HUI 1-day

Weak bull manifestation can be observed in gold miners.

XAU 1-day:

Same weakness on gold/silver sector.

NYMO:

Nymo had a critical low level and showed nice bounce and progress so far, however, yesterday slightly fell out of the trend line.

SPXA50

It's very hard to imagine any major fall from this level. Shocking or flash crash corrections occur from 400 above level.
We can count with some further correction, but market nicely cooled down and just waiting for some further correction, then it continues it's rise.

I might sell 1-2 HUI on Tuesday with a purpose to buy back cheaper.

Good luck!

Weak bull confirmed.

So we can expect one more cascade sell down.
Update EOD.
I might sell 1-2 units of HUI today or tomorrow.

SOLD SIL

2 units @23.2

Weak bull manifestation

I was planning to make a detailed week-end post, but run out of time.
Anyway, I still wait for price manifestation of this bull cycle. So far we had one nice up day, then sceptic follow-up. If this weakening continues, I count with a second selling cascade.
As we have a relatively small, core position I dont plan to perform sell, maybe 1-2 SIL if things go bad.

Market is still not safe, and the reason of my worries is histo selling cycle is deepening on 2-days chart instead of the recent up day.
Also took a look to 4 days RUA chart and it has a bearish histo cross. Not a good sign.

However I still say, we have a perfect setup of going bull, but simply I dont see the power of smarts giving momentum to this opportunity.

We need more time. I plan to give an update EOD, late night or early tomorrow.

Good luck!

Quick update

Hi, I planned to show you our current situation on charts, however, I am very tired I rather write few rows and trust in Steffan he will give you the corresponding RUA charts.
Steffan, many thanks again for your help.

If Steffan will not put his charts, please open an account, you'll still be able to follow things today and make decision intraday.
YOU WILL NEED THAT. Follow histo and oscillator on-line and measure the power of the upcoming bull cycle.


2-days RUA
Market is not safe. Still not safe and could not reverse this current bear.
What is a good signal, there is a stagnation in spite of today's selling.
We could not observe a panic day, in panic days volume spikes minimum 1.2-1.3x of average volume.
Also making fakeout analysis, I still must say, it's a fake bear.

1 day RUA
Histo shows we are on the edge of a bull tur, we can see an almost complete elimination of this bear.
Selling volume declined, and what is an important signal, buying volume rose from steady zero.
If the Korean war were not in place, I'd jump in with all of my stakes. However, I took a moderate position and I rather choose to wait a little. I might miss some profit, but can sell if things worsen.
Our purpose is to ride market safe.

60 min RUA
Current bear cycle seems to be over on 60-min giving chance to a bull cycle on 60 mins.
When both 60 mins and 1 day in a bull setup, chance is high for a price manifestation.
So what we need to monitor tomorrow is to check the health of these two synchronous bull cycle waves.
It tells a lot for us and with a disciplined behavior we will be able to protect our profits/make some more money. 


60 min XAU and HUI
Same. we could se an elimination of the current bearish cycle instead of the selling today. Also gold kept extremely well..



Strategy:
-In case of fierce negative price manifestation - failed bulls mean we need to liquidate most of our positions
-In case of neutral price manifestation - giving up half of our positions
-In case of moderate or strong price manifestation - hold stakes and wait

So, this is the plan I am repeating: market is not safe.

Good luck!

Buy volume rose from steady zero

After a day like this.

I need to run, Steffan posted a 1-day RUA chart, please check.
I bought 1 SIL.
I take the risk.

Not a simple setup, but I'd rather say smarts shop and prepare for a rally. Next few days will tell a lot.

Cheers

I know it's strange

But market is one step ahead of a nice gain.
Maybe toorrow.
I keep my stakes in, might buy 1 more SIL.

Post @EOD.

Nice improvement today

RUA 2-days

2-days chart shows we are far from being safe.

On RUA 1-day chart we can see a nice improvement: elimination of bearish histo, also selling volume started to decline.
Now, if market improves towards bull, bearish histo will decline to steady zero, bull histo will rise and touch the critical level. That will result betterment on 2-days chart.



Let's see a fakeout analysis:

1 day fakeout shows this bear is most probably a fake one.

60-mins RUA:

Today we had a bearish cooldown. Exhausting histo and rising buy volume gives chance for a double bull.

And finally let's see USD 1-day:

Bull histo exhauseted,  oscillator under critical level, selling volume reached signal line, momentum, what is mostly a leading indicator indicates slight bear. Very good signal.

Have a great week-end!

Bought

1 HUI @543
1 SIL @23

Why did I say on Wednesday that Thursday is a day up?

Well, I don't possess the holy grail, so I don't see the future.
I only work with probabilities and chances.
I must declare it before continue this post.

So, I was following the day and I was prepared for a double bear (please read FAQ if not clear).
Normally we make our daily analysis based on a decreasing time frame, understanding the main trend, medium trend and short term trend (2 days, 1 days and 60 min charts) and build up a forecast based on those pictures.
2-days chart showed declining values, 1-days showed unsafe market as well, but 60 min showed a possible short-term trend change EOD.

When I find some discrepancy that's always a point when I think about manipulation or something suspicious.
I've cut charts back to EOD Wednesday and let's make the analysis together:

For the end of the day histo remained bullish. Selling volume was almost zero, and buy volume was rising. However, prices were flat and fell for EOD. >>>DISCREPANCY<<<
This is the first trace. smarts left behind. They were shopping in very small installments, cheap.
Bearish momentum eliminated and sentient left 50 what is a pretty big surprise before an expected OPEX thursday. (on RUA 60m sentiment above 50 gives a large chance to have bullish continuation.

My next point of investigation was to check sectors have strong correlation to raw materials and have high importance in overall economy: oil and energy.

Let's see the energy sector:

It was the moment when I started to be excited.
Bear eliminated on histogram, bull cross on volumes happened in a symmetric way, and MVO made a bull signal!
Also sentoment is up, and momentum started a bull cycle after a double bear.
Of course, again, it's 60 min, should be taken into account with less importance, but SPN was declining all the day and constantly, while volumes became more and more bullish!!! How could it happen? Volume-wise smarts slowly made shopping, while smalls were giving up their positions.


Okay, let's see a super-sensitive metal, respected both as raw material and precious metal:

XAU 60 min:

True surprise. End of bearish histo, weakening bearish oscillator and starting MVO bull signal!
Again, decreasing bearish momentum, and rising sentiment.


And finally checking dollar 1-day, the real engine of economy's 'growth':

Heck, 1-day chart was showing  clear signals of bull exhaustion.

I made my decision, took my long positions, and I wrote my post here before close.
We had a nice day up aftermarket, also a nice up next day.

So, it's all.

Bought

1 SPX @1194
1 HUI @544
1 SIL  @23.15

I was travelling yesterday late afternoon and night, so I could not update the blog.
Market will make a cool down a little today.

What we do is to build core positions.
Core is 1 unit of SPX, 2 units of HUI, 2 units of SIL.
When market is safe, I'll buy 1 more unit of SPX, 2-4 units of HUI, 2-4 units of SIL.
As per moment, market is not safe, there will be some testback.
That will give us lots of information about the health of the market.

Long term volume charts show we had a minor correction and trend is bull.
Steffan, many thanks for helping the team with your charts.

James. Can you see? The biggest mistake could make is to sell your stakes in decline.
Now, as you did not sell, you did not loose.
Zero emotion, cool head and vision. These are the keys for winer trading.

Next week I'll have more time and I'll answer some questions from this and last week.

I'll try to come back and make a market review EOD.
I might buy further 1 SIL and 1 HUI today, if correction happens.

Good luck!

Tomorrow

I might buy
1 SPX
1 HUI
1 SIL

cheers

End of the current bear cycle?

I am running, will provide some charts later or tomorrow.

Steffan, if you read, please share your 2, 1 days and 60 mins RUA chart with the team.
You have my setups.

So crazy... while everybody is preparing for tomorrow's bear, there is a chance to see an up day tomorrow.

heck

bye!

Juicy Tuesday

Guys, what a nice day for volume bugs!
We could easily forecast the upcoming bear and successfully avoided to loose our gains.
So we had nothing to do just sit back and enjoy the show!

1-Day RUA:

Nice day down with a pathetic selling volume. This all thing seems a manipulated correction with nice opportunity for smarts to make Christmas dip-buy shopping.
Market is still unsafe, but we have 4 down days in the last 6 days and still selling volume pathetically touched the critical level. These are signals should be understood: probability is high, there is some nice upside change is preparing.
Of course, these days can't be forgotten easily. Now we need to wait few more days to relax the market, also this level will be tested once or twice. I feel no panic at all, and more test-bounce done, we can be more confident about the main trend.

Let's make some RUA 2-days analysis to see the larger picture:

Bearish cycle had enough power to drag selling volume up from steady zero.
I am just wondering will FED let smarts to push market lower or they will say enough is enough, and start their printing machines again.

2-days fakeout analysis:

We can observe, fakeout analysis is negative so far. After six days of bear long oscillator is almost intact.
With close monitoring we can identify if things run out of control.

USD 1 day:

It's very clear what was the engine of the last bull cycle: weakening dollar. As it is strengthening, market has no steam. FED has to do something to stop it: inflate. And that will be our friend: one of the reason I bough PM is this FED-trap. Please observe the weakening histo bull signal. It does not mean that dollar bull is over, rather we can see a buy-spike volume. It means surge is weakening.

Let me show you why did I buy gold and silver:

HUI 2-days:

Gold miners made it's second cascade down. It kept extremely well so far, and, I must say smarts could successfully manipulate this sector in order to let them climb-in. As PM is a small sector I expect 3 or for more squiggles in the next 8-12 days. These are 5-7% cycles, where 1 cycle lasts about 3-5 days up and 2-4 days down with a slight downtrend. When everybody is freaked out, they have a nice portion in their laps and then they start to dance.

You can see a scary downturn in histo, but please observe how strong bull is the oscillator after this, last selling cascade. Also please observe: after more than 10% of fall in prices selling volume is still steady zero on 2-days chart. Heck! Imagine the same in stock markets. I feel some truly amazing thing start to unfold in PM sector.
I will practice dip buy with smarts in the same rhythm as they are doing. They buy, I buy. It's all!

Anyway in order to protect ou wealth we need to be disciplined. Please find soft and hard liquidation levels below:

SILVER:

Oh yess... my beloved silver. As I told you in one of my earlier posts, silver runs if:
-Gold is up
-Dollars is down
-Market
If one of the conditions is missing, then silver struggles.
Heck, yesterday Market suffered a drop, gold fell like a stone, dollar made a nice gain and silver, in spite of an expected mega-drop, made a minor correction.
Again, something really surprising is preparing with PM sector, especially with Silver.
It will squiggle with more volatility than gold, but finally I expect a hyperbolic growth.
I will practice gradual buying of SIL. I plan to buy 6 SIL and 6 HUI and max 2 spx in this turn.

XAU :

In order to protect our wealth we need to be disciplined. Please find soft and hard liquidation levels below:

And finally let me show you the 1-min RUA chart of yesterday.

I was shorting energy sector in the last couple of days as oil was dropping, but energy stocks remained almost intact and it was evident market will fall, also in order to prepare upcoming bull cycle of market it was necessary to have some correction in energy sector, before the big rally starts.

It was a real pleasure to follow the day and nicely get out and close short positions, also make a nice dip-buy in PM.

So it was a nice day me to see the violent price manifestation yesterday and I'd like to share the 1-min chart of RUA. Again, you can see how cool is volume based TA: yesterday I was out of my shorts at 12:58 AM and you will see now why:

Normally a down day should have strong selling volumes in 1-min chart with violent price effects.
What you can see is only few selling spike and then a pathetic, relaxed day. I would not take this all correction cycle too serious.

I feel we have everything we need for the next days: see the squiggles, make nice dip-buys, and if something big fall comes, we have our mental and hard liquidation limits.

So let's sit back and enjoy the show!

Good luck!

Clarification

Dear My readers,

I am not so happy to read you are very interested in my opinion regarding to short-side trades, also you make your trades depending on mine.

WRONG

My purpose in this blog is to teach you. I clearly specified what will I show you: safe way to make money on bull side.
And my intention is to teach you. Please don't make your decision because of me. Learn to listen the market, make volume TA and classic TA and make your own decision without help.

I trade on my blog to show you the underlying strategy and pinpoint the strongest market segments.
Also I feel so embarrassing if I find a blog with thousands of readers and the writer does not trade what he says.
An open, free blog and rather paid personal financing blog without transparent trading record is accepted with strong doubts by me.

A bad statement or a bad analysis fades away and has no sign for new readers.
A blog makes trades has a value to trust in the writer: he takes the braveness to show his success and his faults.

But here don't follow my trades if you don't understand and accept why am I doing that.
Make your decision by yourself. It's your money, your wealth, please don't trust anyone.
Please learn and walk your own feet. This is the main message of my work here.

Bought

1 unit of SIL @21.5 (reason: GAP close)
1 unit of HUI  @530.7 (reason: weakening bear histo)

Quick update

1-Day RUA:

Both long and short histos are in negative territory, bearish momentum developing.
SB volume cross signals bearish volume surge and takeover. What we need to wait for, is the moment when buy volume returns and diverges from zero line. As per moment it converges to zero. Market is in unsafe territory.

Taking a look into the 60-min charts, it clearly shows that tomorrow is a nice day to test resistances.
I am waiting so much to see how strong will be the upcoming bear. That will give us a lots of information about this bear cycle. We might see a dark and scary Tuesday. No problem, we are out and our 1 unit of HUI keeps well.!

HUI is keeping extremely well. It decoupled to be an inverse mirror of dollar. I feel gold sector and especially gold miners will have a slight cascade fall, but they are full with bullish momentum.
If tomorrow HUI falls dramatically, I might consider a buy of 1 HUI.

What gives some doubt with HUI is the bearish surge signal on MVO.


XAU is in bearish , selling volume rose from steady zero.
For sure, it has one more cascade down.

2-day XAU gives a warning as well, there is an MVO bear signal. It should be taken seriously, risk became high holding silver for a while.

Good luck!

Our Compound Return is : 125.68%

since 29-06-2010

cool

Sold

1 unit of HUI @550

Sold

1 unit of SPX @1204

Selling 1 HUI soon.

Unsafe market conditions

Since 3 of September, this is the first time we have a rising sell volume line on RUA 1-day chart EOD.
We had lots of doubt and so far it was not clear what's happening on the market. I was waiting for a further 1-1.5% rise before this status, but now market clearly stated it's turn on Friday:
Market reached unsafe status.

We liquidate our remaining 1 unit SPX on Monday .

1-Day RUA:

Histo in negative territory, oscillator is 3% far from unsafe level, sell volume rose to11% in a day.
Long histo is in negative territory as well, momentum signal bearish.

RUA 2-days:

2-days chart is pretty healthy as per moment. The only signal is the momentum. Few days needed to see if market can recover.

SPX 1-day:

SPX signaled bearish surge 2 days ago. Please observe the non-MV based profit taking (based on experience and speculation) and MV-based profit taking levels. I feel it's a real proof how powerful can volume based TA be in a beginner's hand.

HUI 1-day:

Gold miners hold extremely well. I risk to tell smarts drag prices in order to insert more volume.
We need to wait few days more to check whether 542 is kept or will it go lower. As histo is very close to a bearish cross my estimation some further fall. If HUI falls under 540 I sell 1 unit on Monday.

Dollar 1- day:

Dollar bull is in progress.

Summary: Market is unsafe. While market counts pretty strong losses, gold miners hold pretty well.
We practice profit taking ASAP, only  keep 1 unit of HUI in.

Good luck!!

Bull surge is over

But there is still a possible last thrust..

Let's see dollar 2-day.
Whatever happens on 2-days chart should be taken seriously. Volumes give cleaner picture on larger aggregation levels.

Smarts started buying dollar when no one was thinking about to do that.
Now it's getting be clear it was a good decision to start filling up dollar inventories.
If bigs decide to drag market down, demand for dollar will jump, and they again, will make nice business selling cheap dollar.
Currency market is huge, and full with manipulation. Smarts bought cheap euro springtime, few days ago they performed cheap dollar switching back, and now they prepare to eat Ireland and drag euro down. Dollar is a poison now in world economy and instead of giving real economical results make dollar stronger, the only thing will strengthen dollar is weakening other main currencies.
Crazy.
However, inflation is the target, not deflation, so after a while dollar will continue it's sinking generating rising market up to skies and flying PPM prices..
Now on 2-days chart it seems oscillator is weak, and does not continue it's bearish cumulation, chance is high for a bullish turn, means correction.Buy volume bounced from steady zero, meaning there is a chance for rise.
MVO made a favor us and signals bullish surge. It's definitely an important signal!
Bearish momentum is ridiculously weak bear.

However USD is heavily manipulated, so I can imagine some decoupling. So far dollar was an inverse mirror of market, now between rising dollar and rising market is a possible scenario for a few trading days.

RUA 1d:

Histo is very close to have negative signal, usually means exhaustion. Oscillator is still fine, MVO bull surge is over. Usually market takes rest and rises after a volume insertion like this. What happens, smarts invest mainly before the rise, then price manifests upwards. That moment magnets smalls to put money in, but smarts perform profit taking at that moment. As smarts injected volume overwhelming, compared to small buy volume,  profit-taking creates a price vacuum, generates price fall. This phenomenon is normal I must say.
However that correction turns into a dip-buy attempt mainly driven by smalls pushing prices up. Then, at the very end, when there is no momentum in market, bull exhausts, suddenly it turns out there is no buyer, the other side is empty, market falls, and again, smarts again waiting for their juicy fruits on the short side.

Ehh... always the same shitty thing....

Our Compound is 116.9% since 29-06-2010

Cool :)


Number of trades: 15
AVG return per trade: 7.73%

Sold

1 unit of spx @1210
4 units of spx @563
2 units of sil @23.7

Profit taking tomorrow

Market made a nice improvement, RUA 1d is still fine, however,  tomorrow I will make a planned profit taking as below:
Sell 1 unit of SPX
Sell 4 units of HUI
Sell 2 units of SIL

If there is a big correction in PM again, I might take less units.
Tomorrow I have meetings, also travel, so I cant' update this blog, only EOD.

I KNOW there might be a nice improvement in PM but this action needs to be done after the sell-of yesterday.

James, I'll give my setups for HUI later, and I know I need to answer some other questions as well, but today it's all I can do.

Good luck!

What is my setup for RUA?

This post is for Mr. Guest, who asked for my setups.

RUA 2-days:

RUA 1-days:

RUA 60 mins:

Click on the pics to enlarge.

Good luck!

USD in focus

As I wrote in my recent post, this all rise is nothing more than a financial manipulation and it's power is an artificial dollar weakening.
USD followed it's scenario, I still dont touch my USD chart I made weeks ago.

It seems this range is critical for FED and makes an attempt to save falling dollar.
Market took a strong revenge on this attempt, and I feel, if FED would like to have some improvement, they need to let USD fall.
And they will. Just a matter of time.

As you can see, we have a weakening bearish cycle in dollar.
Will this continue or not? Let's see the 2-days USD chart:

Taking a look to 2-days USD chart it's almost sure, this bull attempt will fail.
In turn, market will have new and fresh momentum and PM will recover.

taking a look into 1-day RUA we still have safe bull

And what a heck happened today with the bear elimintation?
It became a double:

Whoever wants to enter, needs to wait to have this bear exhausted and check how strong is the bull cycle. Then gradually it's possible to enter now, but I personally preparing to take profit and get out for a while.

Gold miners have nice bull-setup, however today's extreme volume at sell is a signal: smarts performed a serious profit taking. It does not mean that gold and silver will fall from now, it's rather means big guys are in and periodically take profits. I am repeating: PM is super-volatile. If you don't have good stomach to see your  last 3-5 days of gain ereased, then don't go to this field. As I told I will take profit soon.
At the moment MVO runs out of steam I will start to take profits.

As you see above, XAU is still bullish. Please be noted sometimes I'll use Heikin Ashi sticks. It's especially great in doubts to use this. What MV made is to make a day green if HA is positive, even if it was a red day. That's not a good thing, as it can mislead analysts.

Repeating: smarts take profits in waves. Now soon we will have picture about resistances and can have some strategy about the future. DONT TRY TO RIDE ALL SQUIGGLES.

I know, after a day like this it's hard to believe there is up and we are in bull, but I only read charts and listen what market tells. Personally I will sleep well and happy to keep my stakes in for the next few days.
Day after tomorrow I might perform a profit-taking.

Good luck!