Monday, November 8, 2010

Quick update

Dear My Readers,

All the week-end I was busy with my family, so only had time to answer your questions, but nothing more.
Chrlang, I see your questions, will help you this week.
If you prefer SPX, please make a setup :
-Histo 6,22
-Oscillator: 6,1
for 1 day.
However, I suggest to go with RUA:
-Histo: 5,13
-Osc: 5,2
Also please check your setups, you have huge, non-existing gaps in SPX. Maybe there was some issue on server side when you made your charts. I will come back to you and make a dedicated post to give some understanding your questions/charts.

Market status:

Okay, market made a nice recovery. This all is nothing more than a mere financial manipulation. If we can say something, market now is absolutely decoupled from foundations. This all will slap US in face in the future I am afraid, but here we trade and make money, leave worries to others. And we will make nice money.

Let's see USD:

So, dollar drives market now.
I made this chart weeks ago and I dont need to touch  it, only make a snapshot and upload.
I am not touching it, it follows the sad scenario FED made for it. Please observe the momentum as USD approaches the inherited no-man's land level. USD is drifting towards Kinjun-sen (red line) what is a possible signal of trend-change or some bull correction.
I expect there should be a fight around 75.3 for dollar. That fight will result some correction on market, also some cool-down on precious metals sector. Everybody talks about PM and silver, masses just jump in to PM, so it's time to slowly pull our tickets out in a few days. I might get out all of our positions in November, but for now we trade this all down. I count with an opex-wednesday profit taking from most of our PM stakes.

RUA 1-day:

New readers dont know yet, but I prefer to check market status on Russel3000 instead of SPX. They have an extremely high correllation (actually I daytrade ES based on RUA figures) but RUA delivers very clear volume indicators because of the huge volume behind that index.

So, RUA 1-D is super-bullish. short histo is in positive territory, oscillator is above critical level. The most important signal for us, volume bugs, is a bull-surge signal on MVO. While MVO bull surge is there we can make any kind of bullish maneuver, we are poised to win. Therefore I'll buy 1 more SPX and 1 more SIL today. (purpose is educational, I will write  dedicated post for Silver continuing part1 I wrote few weeks before)

RUA 60-min:

RUA signals an incredible buy in last days, pushed volume indicators I can see only once every 2nd years.
Anyway that surge seems to be over for a moment (short histo signals exhausted buy, short oscillator fell under the critical level, MVO surge finished, also sentiment turned down in the last 6 trading hours.
However, putting 60-min into a larger context, I expect (and I ask please, please, please) some intraday pullback, or a slight red day, but then a bullish continuation.

XAU 1-day:

PM sector is extremely volatile. Smarts are mostly allowed to enter into PM sector with special policies, and PM represents minority of their portfolio. But now they are entering. Whoever trades in PM sector must accept he will never pick the bottom and never sell on top. Please imagine a pool you dip and enjoy for a while.
So far I could perform nice dips in this blog, but it's not a guarantee for the future. What is guaranteed, is our trade will bring very positive outcome.
As you can see, XAU performs well, and it has a super-bullish setup.
It made a favour for us to have MVO bull signal. While that MVO signal bull is there, we have nothing to worry about. However, when that surge is over, I'll practice an immediate profit-taking.

Good luck!

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