Friday, November 19, 2010

Why did I say on Wednesday that Thursday is a day up?

Well, I don't possess the holy grail, so I don't see the future.
I only work with probabilities and chances.
I must declare it before continue this post.

So, I was following the day and I was prepared for a double bear (please read FAQ if not clear).
Normally we make our daily analysis based on a decreasing time frame, understanding the main trend, medium trend and short term trend (2 days, 1 days and 60 min charts) and build up a forecast based on those pictures.
2-days chart showed declining values, 1-days showed unsafe market as well, but 60 min showed a possible short-term trend change EOD.

When I find some discrepancy that's always a point when I think about manipulation or something suspicious.
I've cut charts back to EOD Wednesday and let's make the analysis together:

For the end of the day histo remained bullish. Selling volume was almost zero, and buy volume was rising. However, prices were flat and fell for EOD. >>>DISCREPANCY<<<
This is the first trace. smarts left behind. They were shopping in very small installments, cheap.
Bearish momentum eliminated and sentient left 50 what is a pretty big surprise before an expected OPEX thursday. (on RUA 60m sentiment above 50 gives a large chance to have bullish continuation.

My next point of investigation was to check sectors have strong correlation to raw materials and have high importance in overall economy: oil and energy.

Let's see the energy sector:

It was the moment when I started to be excited.
Bear eliminated on histogram, bull cross on volumes happened in a symmetric way, and MVO made a bull signal!
Also sentoment is up, and momentum started a bull cycle after a double bear.
Of course, again, it's 60 min, should be taken into account with less importance, but SPN was declining all the day and constantly, while volumes became more and more bullish!!! How could it happen? Volume-wise smarts slowly made shopping, while smalls were giving up their positions.

Okay, let's see a super-sensitive metal, respected both as raw material and precious metal:

XAU 60 min:

True surprise. End of bearish histo, weakening bearish oscillator and starting MVO bull signal!
Again, decreasing bearish momentum, and rising sentiment.

And finally checking dollar 1-day, the real engine of economy's 'growth':

Heck, 1-day chart was showing  clear signals of bull exhaustion.

I made my decision, took my long positions, and I wrote my post here before close.
We had a nice day up aftermarket, also a nice up next day.

So, it's all.

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