Week-End Summary

SPX

Usually I only publish MV charts can be reached free in their trial period.
In this post I will show you charts can only be accesssed with MV platinum subscription.

I do it because I need to show you all the indicators mainly be used for  volume-based analysis. It also supports my statements and predictions.

So, let's make a drill-down.

2-days chart:

2-days chart SBV histogram suggests an elimination of buying volume, however, it's still in buying territory.
SBV oscillator is under signal level, usually suggests trend change (too much buying volume aggregated, there is a possible upcoming correction to the selling side)
MV SB indicator clearly demonstrates collapsing buying volume and rising selling volume in effect.
MVO does not show peak.AD momentum oscillator is in negative territory.

Based on this analysis trend is DOWN. Magnitude is a question. MV SB volume and 1-day indicators will give answer for this question. If selling volume rises above 55-60% on 2-days chart it causes fierce price manifestation. Under that level it's a minor correction only.

Also the maximum level of buying volume can help us to estimate the magnitude of the correction: usually larger corrections happen if buying volume maximum falls from 60%+ territory with immediate fall to zero. Now maximum was 58% and we had a slow cooldown before final descent started.

Arrows show last correction started from much higher values.

1-day SPX chart

SBV histogram shows decline with growng momentum. SBV oscillator is on 5%, selling volume advanced buying volume.  No peak detected.
Momentum is in negative territory, a little lower than critical level, but remains flat instead of sharp fall, what usually signals fierce correction. AD sentimen is just below the critical level, almost remains in the bullish territory.
1-day volume indicators show mixed picture about this correction. However, sentiment, one of the most important indicators suggest this is a minor correction with a possible quick dip.
Close watch of these indicators necessary. If sentiment and momentum goes down, it means not a correction but overall market fall.

60-min chart

This chart is the reason we made a trade last friday. It shows elimination of selling volume peak.
There is a high probability of a 8-10 point correction intraday on Monday. If we reach that level, then we perform a sell. If it reaches the suggested 1076 pivot minus 1-2 points, then we close our positions. Close monitoring will be made on monday.
Putting 60 min together with 1 and 2 days chartI expect further fall but not expect a big correction. However, monitoring 60-min chart and our limits will protect us against any major correction.

Ichimoku analysis:

Chart above made end of June.You can see, my estimation regarding to the trend and minimum target was pretty good. It's time to make a longer term vision about the market for the next few months.

As you can see, I did not make targets. Market is in a decision point. Targets will be set, if market finds a direction.What is important, we set our danger zone and liquidation zone for now.

60-min ichimoku shows market has lost it's cloud support and in bearish setup. Indicators below the ichimoku clouds show possible cloud target in progress.

NYMO chart shows we are over of safe bull market for a while. It's suggested to check NYMO as a daily routine and make a slow/fast AVG analysis. Smarts do the same. I marked those periods usually called as safe bull periods. Please observe that NYMO is compressing around 40, usually means a support will be found soon.

A50 also suggests a minor correction. Big falls usually come 400+. Now we came from 377.

Dip-buy spx @1079

SPX 60 min: selling signal exhausted on SBV histogram, 10%, SBV oscillator shows elimination of selling volume, MV SB selling signal is zero, volume-based AD sentiment and momentum also shows positive trend.
High probability of price manifestation on Monday.

I'll try to make some charts tomorrow.

Gold is still bullish.

Slow elimination

60 min chart market internals - volume analysis shows elimination of selling volume.
SBV histogram shows weakening selling signal, MVO indicator has a clear peak of selling volume at 13.30 today means selling exhaustion. Volume based quantitative sentiment and momentum indicators also show good possibility of selling elimination.
The only issue is no buying volume rising so far. Most probably bulls will attempt to push up indices after hours, pre-market and e-mini. However this volume is that strong I dont give hope for stabilisation, also friday trader's week-end sell off  can influence or weaken recovery.

1 -day SPX chart: All indicators show bearish bias
2 -days SPX chart: All indicators show bearish bias

I'd like to rise your attention: there was no major volume sell-day yesterday nor today giving high probability of quick bull turn of stockmarkets. A light dip-buy tomorrow just before market-close maybe not a bad idea.
We still stay away of stocks. Let daytraders to play their game.

Gold: As I suggested yesterday there was a clear bullish volume setup manifested intoa price change today. As usual, rise happened mostly out of market hours. However, I initiated a trade with 1 unit HUI @456. Please note again, precious metals are extreme volatile, our target is to make profit in months. I expect 20-30% in 3 months.

Strong institutional sell signal

60 mins chart shows selling volume was rising while buying volume has been eliminated. Strong support found around 1090. After-hours analysis shows selling peak has reached it's maximum today, and market is ready for a slow recovery at least for a while.

What is more interesting, 1-day chart shows dramatic change in a day. Smartmoney made a decision to stream it's liquidity out of stocks. It happened too fast, triggering an immediate price manifestation. Selling volume rose to 9% from zero in a day.  Daily SBV shows 4% positive signal with a high probability of crossing signal lines usually mean this cycle will reach an unsafe territory.
In a clear and safe bull market selling volume on AD indicator is flat zero.
Except on SBV Histogram, all other indicators show a possible trend change to bear.

Only hope for bull recovery is the 2 days chart. SBV oscillator did not reach it's critical 33% level, also SBV histogram shows 18% signal, that usually means market has enough power to recover. What is a negative sign, selling volume rose to 11% from zero in a day.

As you can observe, I did not indicate a new trade on SPX. Our strategy, the silly bull will wait for clear signals. And this market lost its power for a while. No dip-buy.
However, liquidity and inflation pressure is that huge it'll find it's place again in stock markets. It's only matter of time. It's not a must to trade every time.

Gold and gold miners: 60-min, 1-day and 2-day analysis shows that gold is cooling down from its overbought status. On both 1 and 2 day volume charts clear signals of trend change to bull from it's bearish cycle finished today and ready for a nice price manifestation.

I'd like to rise your attention: silver. We are very close to have a bounce.

Both silver and gold is a long-term speculation, a classic buy and hold-type of investment. I loaded more double long gold and silver today, also will make a HUI trade here in this blog tomorrow.

Inflation, our best friend is knocking on the door, so I'd not worry about stock market neither precious metals on long-term.

No surprise at all

As I told yesterday  "2 of five indicators show weakening AD volume momentum. Volume based sentiment shows rising trend, usually pushes SPX higher". 60 min volume analysis clearly shows this manifestation actually happened in a day, flat selling volume signal on 1-day and 2-day chart clearly shows smart money used this moment to make a dip buy.
I'd like to emphasize: news almost always reactive instead of proactive, they try to explain things instead of forecast.

Now selling volume needs to eliminate on 60-min charts. It's a slow progress. Selling volume can not be identified as major  institutional selling pattern (institutions as market makers trade in small installments in order not to change prices), so mainly made by retail. It means pretty fast elimination, then bull will return and manifest. (explanation: 1 and 2 day volume changes are major ones, they usually mean upcoming price manifestation. If volume changes cant' be shown, only on 60-min charts, then main trend remains unchanged.)

Gold will climb. I am sure I dont need to explain why. I made a new dip-buy today before the FED statement.

I promised some charts and more detailed analysis yesterday, however I am in constant lack of time to make them. Please try to log in to your marketvolume account (I hope you already have that) and use my oscillator setups to see how volumes changed. Also try to make 1 day and 60 min ichimoku analysis. You will see cloud support established on both scale and market is prepared to make a nice climb. I expect some nice rally this week, but then a slowdown or correction is pretty foreseeable next week.

I'll try to come back later today. If not, this short update comes tomorrow again.

Back

Hi, I am back, detailed post later, maybe tomorrow.

In Summary:

SPX daily : Still bullish readings, however 2 of five indicators show weakening AD volume momentum. Volume based sentiment shows rising trend, usually pushes SPX higher

SPX 2 day data: All indicators show bullish volume bias. Stable bull market signal.

Gold daily: Declining selling volume shows rising probability of bull. In progress.

Gold/Silver ratio (XAU): Advancing indicators suggest rise.

Manifested bull effect

Hi all,

Thanks a lot for your patience. I can see from my stats you were returning day by day to check if I am back.
So where are we now?
As I told in my post here: http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/07/opex-wednesday.html there was a huge bull volume aggregating in background manifested in the time fence I estimated. For now we have a stabilized bull market with flat sell volume indicator and downsizing buying volume indicator. General volume is weak. Market became overheated, and cooling on the run.

NYMO shows slow and safe cooldown from an extreme hot market status. As we can see we are very far from 13/34 bull cross. Smartmoney usually enters and exits between these crosses, remaining level is not safe.

Volume analysis readings:

Public MV Histogram and Oscillator show strong bull status of market. Volume analyis shows flat selling and strong buying volume. This is a pretty safe bull market status as well. Volume momentum gives strong bull signal, AD sentiment is far above the critical value. Again, bull volume manifestation.

For sake of fun I made a comparison my estimate vs reality. Please read my entry at : http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/06/week-end-summary.html . You can find my estimation about the market there.


https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiknvgtD0K8pTylfCNRulJ0XOhs5hmAuysYtt_fX3NUOK7zaEX2ZZStoAywpUgu8-YXdLMdI2nMvWWBuzuWkoU8mgTYTTPEVLqYX-lVm2UifYXBbAgrab5eK23Qh16H2qgSvtTwZVHX8yM/s1600/stkchrtspx20100625_1D_zoom.png

Let's compare how did it happen?

As you can see, my estimate was pretty good. Surprising good. I dont make sport about predictions and don't like to make long-term charts. They mentally influence analysts and they want to see what they predicted instead of the reality. Also I don't believe in any kind of software or principle can make predictions a month in advance. Anyway it's a fun to observe whether I was right or not. It's all.

Market could manage to drill through on bearish cloud and now have strong and clear cloud support. Also need to note it reached and confirmed to hold again EMA200.

I expect some correction around 1060. Dollar is weakening, raw materials in a huge rally. This is a bull rally on liquidity, not on economical stability. Personally I made a huge buy on monday for gold miners and palladium.

Back to stock market I made a quick charts with the main lines, support, danger zones etc. as usual.

Maybe you ask me why am I talking about my trades if this blog aims SPX and concentrates large-volume indexes.

I help you to understand market behavior and help o demonstrate invisible and manifested volume streams, but I like to place my analysis into a larger context. I told you several times, this market is a struggling one. You can feel, it's running nowhere. But in this blog I don't give my detailed macro economical opinion, I am trying to concentrate to facts on stock-market. If I'd take the economical status of USA serious I'd be paralyzed and suggest to go cash and pray.

Back to gold and precious metals, all vectors show me to invest to gold. It's struggling now, and it's a very dangerous, low-volume segment, needs experience and good nerves. I'll keel update you about my opinion on gold and oil. As I am making volume-based analysis here, I'll give update about my readings on MV charst regarding to them.

I dont make tradings now, as I'll have a few days of sabbatical again starting tomorrow. Next week we will try to enter to the market and play a little just for sake to measure the performance of this trading strategy.