Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Manifested bull effect

Hi all,

Thanks a lot for your patience. I can see from my stats you were returning day by day to check if I am back.
So where are we now?
As I told in my post here: http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/07/opex-wednesday.html there was a huge bull volume aggregating in background manifested in the time fence I estimated. For now we have a stabilized bull market with flat sell volume indicator and downsizing buying volume indicator. General volume is weak. Market became overheated, and cooling on the run.
NYMO shows slow and safe cooldown from an extreme hot market status. As we can see we are very far from 13/34 bull cross. Smartmoney usually enters and exits between these crosses, remaining level is not safe.

Volume analysis readings:


Public MV Histogram and Oscillator show strong bull status of market. Volume analyis shows flat selling and strong buying volume. This is a pretty safe bull market status as well. Volume momentum gives strong bull signal, AD sentiment is far above the critical value. Again, bull volume manifestation.

For sake of fun I made a comparison my estimate vs reality. Please read my entry at : http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/2010/06/week-end-summary.html . You can find my estimation about the market there.


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_law1who835Y/TCX7whKlwfI/AAAAAAAAAEA/BB5mDkFzpis/s1600/stkchrtspx20100625_1D_zoom.png

Let's compare how did it happen?



As you can see, my estimate was pretty good. Surprising good. I dont make sport about predictions and don't like to make long-term charts. They mentally influence analysts and they want to see what they predicted instead of the reality. Also I don't believe in any kind of software or principle can make predictions a month in advance. Anyway it's a fun to observe whether I was right or not. It's all.

Market could manage to drill through on bearish cloud and now have strong and clear cloud support. Also need to note it reached and confirmed to hold again EMA200.

I expect some correction around 1060. Dollar is weakening, raw materials in a huge rally. This is a bull rally on liquidity, not on economical stability. Personally I made a huge buy on monday for gold miners and palladium.

Back to stock market I made a quick charts with the main lines, support, danger zones etc. as usual.


Maybe you ask me why am I talking about my trades if this blog aims SPX and concentrates large-volume indexes.

I help you to understand market behavior and help o demonstrate invisible and manifested volume streams, but I like to place my analysis into a larger context. I told you several times, this market is a struggling one. You can feel, it's running nowhere. But in this blog I don't give my detailed macro economical opinion, I am trying to concentrate to facts on stock-market. If I'd take the economical status of USA serious I'd be paralyzed and suggest to go cash and pray.

Back to gold and precious metals, all vectors show me to invest to gold. It's struggling now, and it's a very dangerous, low-volume segment, needs experience and good nerves. I'll keel update you about my opinion on gold and oil. As I am making volume-based analysis here, I'll give update about my readings on MV charst regarding to them.

I dont make tradings now, as I'll have a few days of sabbatical again starting tomorrow. Next week we will try to enter to the market and play a little just for sake to measure the performance of this trading strategy.

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