Monday, August 16, 2010

Week-End Summary


Usually I only publish MV charts can be reached free in their trial period.
In this post I will show you charts can only be accesssed with MV platinum subscription.

I do it because I need to show you all the indicators mainly be used for  volume-based analysis. It also supports my statements and predictions.

So, let's make a drill-down.

2-days chart:

2-days chart SBV histogram suggests an elimination of buying volume, however, it's still in buying territory.
SBV oscillator is under signal level, usually suggests trend change (too much buying volume aggregated, there is a possible upcoming correction to the selling side)
MV SB indicator clearly demonstrates collapsing buying volume and rising selling volume in effect.
MVO does not show peak.AD momentum oscillator is in negative territory.

Based on this analysis trend is DOWN. Magnitude is a question. MV SB volume and 1-day indicators will give answer for this question. If selling volume rises above 55-60% on 2-days chart it causes fierce price manifestation. Under that level it's a minor correction only.

Also the maximum level of buying volume can help us to estimate the magnitude of the correction: usually larger corrections happen if buying volume maximum falls from 60%+ territory with immediate fall to zero. Now maximum was 58% and we had a slow cooldown before final descent started.

Arrows show last correction started from much higher values.

1-day SPX chart

SBV histogram shows decline with growng momentum. SBV oscillator is on 5%, selling volume advanced buying volume.  No peak detected.
Momentum is in negative territory, a little lower than critical level, but remains flat instead of sharp fall, what usually signals fierce correction. AD sentimen is just below the critical level, almost remains in the bullish territory.
1-day volume indicators show mixed picture about this correction. However, sentiment, one of the most important indicators suggest this is a minor correction with a possible quick dip.
Close watch of these indicators necessary. If sentiment and momentum goes down, it means not a correction but overall market fall.

60-min chart

This chart is the reason we made a trade last friday. It shows elimination of selling volume peak.
There is a high probability of a 8-10 point correction intraday on Monday. If we reach that level, then we perform a sell. If it reaches the suggested 1076 pivot minus 1-2 points, then we close our positions. Close monitoring will be made on monday.
Putting 60 min together with 1 and 2 days chartI expect further fall but not expect a big correction. However, monitoring 60-min chart and our limits will protect us against any major correction.

Ichimoku analysis:

Chart above made end of June.You can see, my estimation regarding to the trend and minimum target was pretty good. It's time to make a longer term vision about the market for the next few months.

As you can see, I did not make targets. Market is in a decision point. Targets will be set, if market finds a direction.What is important, we set our danger zone and liquidation zone for now.

60-min ichimoku shows market has lost it's cloud support and in bearish setup. Indicators below the ichimoku clouds show possible cloud target in progress.

NYMO chart shows we are over of safe bull market for a while. It's suggested to check NYMO as a daily routine and make a slow/fast AVG analysis. Smarts do the same. I marked those periods usually called as safe bull periods. Please observe that NYMO is compressing around 40, usually means a support will be found soon.

A50 also suggests a minor correction. Big falls usually come 400+. Now we came from 377.

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