Sunday, August 22, 2010

Week-End Summary

SPX 3-days aggregated volume analysis:

4 indicators from 5 suggest rising selling volume usually result more drop in prices

SPX 2-days volume analysis:

SBV Histogram is flat with a slight negative value, SBV Oscillator suggests still aggregating selling volume, SB Volume chart indicates buying/selling volume cross with descending aggregated buy volume and aggregating selling volume. Sentiment is in negative territory, under a critical level.

SPX 1-day volume analysis:

SBV histogram indicates rising selling volume, SBV oscillator shows strengthening accumulation of selling volume. Buying volume is steady zero, selling volume is rising. Momentum in negative territory under critical level, sentiment is under critical bearish level.

SPX 60-min volume analysis:

SBV Histogram shows a short-term exhaustion of current selling wave. SBV oscillator also confirms that short-term selling volume is not aggregating. MVO indicator suggests current selling cascade exhausted on 20-AUG-10 12:30. AD sentiment in critical negative territory. Momentum oscillator confirms short-term selling exhaustion.

Conclusion: Possible exhaustion next week on monday after-lunch hours, some short-term buyup can push prices higher. However, large amount of money has been streamed out of stock markets after pathetic days last two weeks made longer-term damage. Long-term, volume based trend forecast is DOWN with high volatility.
This damage will most probably manifest in further selling leg(s). Close monitoring needed.

Market status: NOT SAFE

Estimated next leg and support is marked in chart below:


3-5 %  further correction is expected in next few trading days under HUI 450 is danger zone, liquidation level is under 430.
All long term (2,3,5 days) charts and analysis indicate rising buying volumes with high probability of  upward price manifestation.

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