Thursday, September 30, 2010

Turnback of bull

We could see boring days in prices, but, if you take a look into volumes, I really enjoy how big fight is there.
Let me show you a day on 1-min. I usually follow a doay on 5-min or 15 min charts, but I need to show what happened yesterday. Actually bears made a huge attack bulls could push back.

For a volume-bug, like me yesterday was really interesting. On 1-min chart McClellan gives us better hep than volume based sentiment.
Initially yesterday's results were eliminated making some money for smarts. Then you can see a bull-re test, with very effective price change, meaning bear exhaustion for smarts. So they produced a failed bull, made the usual pass over positions to dummies, and we can see they started to go to the bull side with no price effect. They could play this from 10:40 to 11:10 then price manifestation could not be held, a nice buy rally started.
We can exactly pinpoint bull exhaustion at 12:50, also we can see rising selling pressure. Now smarts start a fake bull rally just to pass their positions to dummies once again. We can see prices are not rising, while buy volume surge can be observed. Finally SBV oscillator shows elimination for 15:00. Please observe that SBV histo gave us bear signals 8 minutes before the heavy price manifestation (14:52)!
Then a massive short rally comes, this is a typical sign of smart-dumps. Dummies cant' load cheap shorts now, and all bear cycle exhausts in few minutes. Then we can see a low-efficiency short squeeze, McClellan gives signal of exhaustion, also, mvo clearly declares the end of the short game and suggests upcoming bull (MVO double red-green switch, first with extreme strong signals (15.05-15:30), then a weaker signal. That's the point smarts loaded some more calls. And all the game will continue today, same game every day, all the year....

Status: I'll be very quick:

RUA- 60min:

We have an exhausted short-term bull cycle. I count with a rise and small drop beginning  of the day 30-sep, testing SPX 1135s then a steady bear exhaustion, few-hours around that finally goes into a rally to 1145s then drag to 1135s again. If this characteristics is in play, last bear rally will be used to load more calls for 1st of october and new quarter. Market does not like too much sideways move.

RUA- 1 day:

As you can see bull setup has some damage, but on large, cumulative level bear volume remains on zero level.
SBV histo is rising from -7 to -5, momentum rose from 1.01 to 1.02. Market is reparing for a rise.
If financials start to give false bull price signals and I see internals are improving, I'll buy one more SPX unit.

I read some comments here the only buyer is FED. No way.I am sorry but it's not true. Smarts know when FED is stronger than any of them, Ben proved his power end of august and smashed billions of dollars of other's smarts did not agree with this bull. Smarts simply see less risk to go with Ben than attacking him now. He protects market at any price. He told it several times, and I feel this rally will be used as a start engine of boosting world economy. They will attack AYH and later ATH. Copper already completed AYH. Look, if Ben fails now, then US is in a big trouble, hopeless nation, failed trillions invested for recovery, smashed banks and debased USD. This is definitely not a preferred scenario. So, they smash dollar but will have returning economy and later they'll fix USD. We will see.

GOLD: Extremely stong internals.

Gold made it's 1300s correction overnight, now it has no technical resistance. The only resistance is human greed and insane behavior. We need to use psychology to determine gold exit points rather TA.
When others cheer, smile and rush for gold, media is full about gold, that will be our time to decrease our gold portfolio. Gold story will have a rude finish loosing 5-15% of value of it, as simply, there will no be buyer on other side. I'll not make an attempt not to loose that. For that time we will have 1 unit of hui and we will keep that, as gold will recover soon after and rise again. Patience is our friend.
I am just waiting for a hui ATH then will buy 1 more unit.

Good luck!

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