Week-End Summary

Dear my readers,

I need to run, I'll be shorter than usually in my week-end summary.

Last week:

After the big gain market broke the august bear-trend. Now we can talk an almost 4 month consolidation and sideways move.

Breaking 1130 was not easy and needs further and stronger confirmation. Last friday we could observe an enermous fight in the last trading hour. On RUA there was a trade of 2.5Bn in an hour. This index usually trades around 5Bn a day.

It was a huge battle. Almost all selling pressure was bought immediately on all major indexes. Some indexes failed to manage closing positive, the most important is SPS (similar to RIFIN) 

 

but only with half percent.

An invisible hand bought all selling pressure and did not let market to fail.

This type of buy can be observed on 31-AUG-2010. That buy was huge as well but only about 80% of last friday's buying power. Wowww...

Current Status:

RUA (R3k) 2-days:

2-Day RUA charts showsweakening momentum but improving bull volume oscillator. Selling volume remains flat zero while buyin volume remains steady. 6-day sentiment indicator is a little high.

RUA 2-Days Fakeout

As we can see result is negative. It's a longer-term bull cycle, not a short bull trap.

RUA 1 day:

Histogram shows weakening bull signal, signal level is still fine, does not show clear exhaustion. Rising fast signal suggest further bull volume insertion before a minor correction.

SPX:

2 days:

2-days chart momentum indicator fell under critical level, histogram is not generating signal, however oscillator and selling/buying volume shows no signal for a major correction. Market needs further bull insertion to continue it's growth, more, decisive bull volume is needed.

SPX 1-day

1 day chart shows strong histogram signal, steady oscillator and bull volume signal, and eligible bull momentum. Sentiment is fine.

Gold miners:

3-day:

3-day HUI charts shows a beginning phase of a strong and steady bull rally with a sloght MVO bull signal.
With the recent, doubled volume insertion this market became extremely bullish. We will see daily up and downswings, our only task will be keep our bull bets.

2-day HUI

2 day HUI shows clear shorter-term exhaustion. Oscillator signal gave a clear bearish warning, histogram also gave short-term bearish signal. Histogram reading was -9 and now rose to -3 suggesting further bull insertion and rising prices.

Prognosis:

SPX:
Last friday's buy volume suggests an upcoming quick rally attacking 1130 again. Estimation is to take that critical point again and run to the 1135s. That quick rally will exhaust in the next 8-12 trading hours. A re-test of 1130s is expected to the recent GAP around 1110-1112 but bulls will perform dip-buy sending market to 1130 with a decisive, final volume insertion.
We will keep our 1 unit of SPX with soft liqudation @1080s.

GOLD miners:
Some further  correction is expected. This will be used for further smart bull insertion. We will keep our 3 units of HUI and sit tight. Further, hyperbolic bull rally is expected.
Silver miners are prepared for a wild correction, but gold will drag silver upward resulting historical gain on silver miner stocks.

Good luck!